Analysis of the Operation of the Main Raw Materials for Coatings and Waterproofing in 2025

In the first seven months of 2025, the Chinese coatings raw material market will continue to operate at a low level, and the industry as a whole will face multiple challenges such as weak demand, fierce competition, and compressed profit margins for enterprises. Compared with the same period in 2024, the market recovery momentum is insufficient, and most product prices are still in a downward trend. Epoxy resin TDI、 The prices of major raw materials，such as titanium dioxide, ethyl acetate, and propylene glycol continue to decline year-on-year, and some product prices have fallen to recent lows. The operating pressure on production enterprises has further increased. Although some enterprises are actively expanding their overseas markets, the export growth rate has significantly slowed down due to factors such as slowing global economic growth and increasing trade barriers.

According to monitoring data from the Ibuychem Research Institute, the cost index of coatings procurement in July 2025 was 75%, a decrease of 1 percentage point month on month and 13 percentage points year-on-year. From the trend of the first seven months of this year, the procurement cost of coatings has plummeted, hitting a new low in nearly nine years. 

The purchasing cost index of powder coatings in July 2025 was 83%, a decrease of 2 percentage points compared to the previous month and a significant decrease of 39 percentage points compared to the previous year, reaching a new low in recent years. 

The cost index of waterproof material procurement in July 2025 was 96%, a decrease of 1 percentage point compared to the previous month and 12 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Compared with the cost index of powder coating, the cost reduction of waterproof materials is relatively slow.

Titanium dioxide

In the first half of 2025, the production capacity growth of China's titanium dioxide industry will significantly accelerate, but the demand side growth will be weak, making it difficult to digest excess supply. Especially in the second quarter, the decrease in raw material costs coupled with weak demand resulted in a lack of effective support in the market, ultimately leading to a trend of first rising and then falling titanium dioxide prices in the first half of the year.

According to data from the Ibuychem Research Institute, the average market price of rutile titanium dioxide in China in the first half of 2025 is 14461 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.65% compared to the same period last year; The average price of rutile type is 12610 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10.49%. The high point of the price this year occurred from the end of March to early April, with the highest price reaching 16000 yuan/ton. However, at the end of June, it dropped to 14000 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 2000 yuan/ton. The price continued to decline in July.

The EU and India have successively made final anti-dumping rulings on titanium dioxide from China, resulting in a significant increase in the cost of exporting to the European market. As a result, the European coatings industry's procurement of titanium dioxide has decreased year-on-year. Despite actively exploring emerging markets such as South Asia and Southeast Asia, it is still difficult for companies to fully compensate for the declining gap in the EU and Indian markets.

Toluene diisocyanate (TDI)

In the first half of 2025, the price of TDI in the Chinese market is at a relatively low point in recent years. Due to the imbalance of supply and demand fundamentals and the high pressure of social inventory, the growth rate of supply increment far exceeds the growth rate of demand in downstream industries such as sponges and curing agents, further exacerbating the supply-demand contradiction. According to monitoring data from the Ibuychem Research Institute, the average price of TDI in China in the first half of 2025 was 12131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.96% compared to the same period last year. In July, due to supply constraints, the price rebounded.

In the first half of 2025, China's TDI production capacity has reached 1.63 million tons. It is expected that after the new production capacity of Wanhua Chemical and other enterprises is put into operation in the second half of the year, the total production capacity will exceed 1.9 million tons. The current TDI industry's loose supply pattern continues, and the high production capacity base drives export demand. In the first half of 2025, the apparent consumption of TDI in China narrowed compared to the same period last year, but the actual consumption increased year-on-year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of TDI in China was 219200 tons, with a year-on-year increase of up to 83%. The expected annual export volume is 450000 tons. In the long run, China's dependence on TDI exports may exceed 40%, and its global market share will further expand.

Butyl Acrylate

By 2025, the price of butyl acrylate in China will drop to a nearly five-year low. According to data from the Ibuychem Research Institute, the average market price of butyl acrylate in the first half of 2025 was 8711 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.99% compared to the same period last year. The highest price in the first half of the year was 9750 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 8150 yuan/ton. After entering July, the price continued to decline.

From the downstream field of butyl acrylate, the incremental demand for downstream adhesive tape mother rolls is still acceptable, while other demands are not as expected. In the first half of 2025, the output of tape master roll will increase, and the increase in butyl acrylate will be relatively obvious, but the demand for acrylic lotion will be poor, and the export performance will be weak. From January to June 2025, the export volume of butyl acrylate in China will be 123200 tons, 13.42% less than that in 2024.

In 2025, the production capacity of China's acrylic acid industry will continue to expand. In the first half of 2025, Wanhua Penglai's 400000 tons/year plant will be put into operation, and the production capacity of butyl acrylate will increase to 3.78 million tons. With the commissioning of BASF's Zhanjiang plant in the second half of the year, the supply of butyl acrylate in China will further increase, and the supply and demand pattern will still face significant challenges.

Methyl methacrylate (MMA)

In the first half of 2025, the Chinese MMA market as a whole lacks strong and favorable support, with prices fluctuating and declining. According to monitoring data from the Ibuychem Research Institute, the average price of MMA in the East China market in the first half of 2025 was 10941 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 22.37%. In the first half of the year, the price of MMA in China was between 10000-12500 yuan/ton, which was lower than the same period last year. After entering July, the price continued to decline, and the mainstream price has already fallen below 10000 yuan.

In the first half of 2025,the Chinese MMA production capacity will continue to grow, increasing to 2.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.68%. In the second half of the year, production capacity will continue to increase, but the demand side will remain weak, and the recovery of terminal industries such as construction and automobiles will be weak, resulting in lower than expected demand growth for major downstream industries such as PMMA and ACR. The year-on-year growth rate of China's MMA exports in 2025 is limited. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of MMA in China was 117000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. It is expected that the export volume in the first half of 2025 will be around 130000 tons.

Neopentyl glycol

In the first half of 2025, the market price of neopentyl glycol in China first rose and then fell, with an overall trend slightly higher than the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the neopentyl glycol industry underwent centralized maintenance, and the supply was tight, resulting in a continuous rise in the price of neopentyl glycol, with the highest reaching 12000 yuan/ton. In April, under the tariff policy, the export orders of the neopentyl glycol terminal industry weakened, and the off-season of the industry combined with the gradual recovery of maintenance equipment led to a rapid decline in the price of neopentyl glycol to near the cost line. According to monitoring data from the Ibuychem Research Institute, the average price of neopentyl glycol in China in the first half of 2025 was 10583 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68% compared to the same period last year. In July, with the continuous high production of neopentyl glycol, factory spot inventory accumulated, and the market center of gravity once again declined.

From the supply side, the production in the first half of 2025 has shown a significant year-on-year increase compared to 2024. This is still due to the concentrated maintenance of the main factories. In the second half of the year, factories will increase production, coupled with the impact of new production capacity, and the production growth rate may continue to expand. The pressure on the supply of neopentyl glycol will also become more apparent. 

Epoxy resin

In the first half of 2025, the profit of China's epoxy resin industry will recover, but the supply-demand imbalance will still exist. According to monitoring by the Ibuychem Research Institute, the average price of liquid epoxy resin E-51 in the first half of 2025 will be 13790 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.56% year-on-year compared to 2024. Under cost pressure, epoxy resin saw a slight increase in July, but weak downstream demand suppressed market volume.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the growth rate of supply exceeds that of demand, and the expansion of production capacity continues. China's epoxy resin production capacity reached 3.56 million tons, an increase of 3.18% from the end of 2024. However, downstream demand differentiation is evident, with prominent demand in the wind power industry. The replenishment of essential needs drives up prices, while downstream demand for coatings, electronics, and other products remains flat. The European Union and the United States have launched anti-dumping and anti subsidy investigations on Chinese epoxy resin, which has affected some export orders and led to a decrease in exports to the United States and the European Union. In the first half of 2025, the main export trading partners of epoxy resin will also change, with a decrease in the proportion of exports to Russia and an increase in exports to the Middle East region.

Acrylic emulsion

In the first half of 2025, China's acrylic lotion will fluctuate downward, which is mainly affected by the continuous weakening of cost support for acrylic lotion and the weak demand of downstream industries, so that the productivity growth of acrylic lotion will enter a flat period and the market price center will fall. According to the monitoring of the Ibuychem Research Institute, the market price of China's pure acrylic lotion will fluctuate between 7200-6300 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025, with the average price of 6733 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025, down 14.98% from the same period last year. The price of styrene acrylic lotion in the first half of the year was 5527 yuan/ton, down 13.32% from the same period last year. The price continued to decline in July.

The construction industry is one of the main consumption fields of acrylic lotion. Although more favorable policies for real estate were introduced in the first half of 2025, the recovery process of the real estate market was slow, the investment in real estate development nationwide declined year-on-year, and the area of newly started houses also decreased significantly, resulting in weak demand growth for acrylic lotion for architectural coatings, wall coatings, etc. In addition, home decoration and other related fields are also affected by the downturn of the real estate market, and consumers are not willing to decorate, further reducing the consumption of acrylic lotion in construction related fields. Therefore, it is expected that the price of acrylic lotion will not remain high in the second half of 2025.

Ethyl acetate

In the first half of 2025, the market price of ethyl acetate in China fluctuated at a low level. According to the monitoring of the Ibuychem Research Institute, the market price of ethyl acetate in China fluctuated around the range of 5100-5300 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025, with an average price of 5167 yuan/ton in the first half of the year, a decrease of 15.47% compared to the same period last year. The price continued to decline in July.

In 2025, the production capacity of ethyl acetate in China will continue to increase. Currently, the total production capacity of ethyl acetate in China has reached 4.76 million tons, with a growth rate of 5.96% in the past five years. The Chinese ethyl acetate market has overcapacity. Against the backdrop of industry consolidation and intensified competition, some enterprises are still seeking to strengthen their competitive advantages by adding new production capacity. In the next two years, the planned new production capacity has exceeded 1 million tons, and the pressure of supply-demand imbalance in the industry will further intensify.

Xylene

In the first half of 2025, the mainstream price trend of xylene in China is relatively weak. According to the monitoring of the Ibuychem Research Institute, the average price of xylene in the East China market for the first half of the year is 62305 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 17.32%. The price trend is lower than that of the same period last year. The high point of the first half of the year was in mid January, and xylene rose narrowly in July due to tight supply.

In the first half of the year, the newly added production capacity of xylene was limited, with a total of 3 new units put into operation, with a total production capacity of 370000 tons, and the supply side remained tight. In the second half of the year, China's new xylene production capacity will be concentrated. Due to the concentrated production of new equipment and large production capacity, it is expected that the output will increase significantly in the second half of the year. The growth rate of PX and gasoline in the downstream of the two main forces is within 5%, and it is expected that the production growth rate of xylene will reach 12%, far exceeding the downstream growth rate. The pressure on China's xylene supply is gradually becoming apparent, and the price pressure is increasing.

Asphalt

In the first half of 2025, the performance of China's asphalt market will be weak, affected by tight road funds, and the construction progress of road projects will be slow, which will suppress the release of asphalt demand. According to data from the Ibuychem Research Institute, the average price of modified asphalt in the Chinese market in the first half of 2025 is 4191 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.91% compared to the same period last year; The highest price is 4300 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 3900 yuan/ton. The overall price trend shows a range oscillation, and the asphalt market price in July is under pressure and declining.

In January and February, the adjustment of the consumption tax low deduction policy provided favorable support to the market from both the cost and supply sides, coupled with the release of stocking and warehousing demand from traders and downstream, resulting in a fluctuating rise in asphalt prices; In March and April, the significant drop in international oil prices negatively impacted the asphalt market from the cost side, coupled with the gradual increase in social inventory and slow release of terminal demand, resulting in a clear correction in asphalt prices. From April to June, the sustained low supply in the northern region led to relatively firm market prices, resulting in a restorative rebound in spot asphalt prices.