OCTOBER 16,2019

IMF cuts global economic growth forecast international oil price falls

2019-10-16 14:44

The International Monetary Fund lowered its economic growth forecast this year to its lowest since 2008, raising concerns about the outlook for crude oil demand. U.S. WTI crude oil November futures fell 0.78 dollars, or 1.5 percent, to 52.81 dollars per barrel on Tuesday, hitting a minimum of 52.39 U.S. dollars per barrel. Brent crude oil for December futures fell $0.61, or 1 percent, to $58.74 a barrel, hitting as low as $58.00 a barrel in the session.

According to the world economic outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund, the growth rate of global GDP is expected to be 3% in 2019, which is expected to be 3.2%, the lowest since 2008. At the same time, it lowered the U.S. GDP growth forecast in 2019 from 2.6% to 2.4%, the euro zone GDP growth forecast in 2019 from 1.3% to 1.2%, and China's forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 6.1%.

International oil prices fell sharply in early trading on Tuesday, but the decline narrowed after reports that Britain and the European Union made progress in the last-minute negotiations to reach an agreement on brexit.

The market is waiting for us oil inventory data to be delayed. As Monday is Columbus Day, the U.S. government has a day off. As a rule, the release of U.S. oil inventory data is delayed for one day. The API inventory data will be released at 4:30 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, i.e. 4:30 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. The EIA oil inventory data will be released at 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday, i.e. 23:00 Beijing time on Thursday. 。 Analysts generally estimate that U.S. crude oil inventories grew for the fifth consecutive week last week.

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